Becker, Christoph ; Duersch, Peter ; Eife, Thomas
This is the latest version of this item.
Preview |
PDF, English
- main document
Download (3MB) | Terms of use |
Citation of documents: Please do not cite the URL that is displayed in your browser location input, instead use the DOI, URN or the persistent URL below, as we can guarantee their long-time accessibility.
Abstract
In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modified response scales induces different answers: Shifting, compressing or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed and expanded forecasts. Mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement can change by several percentage points. We discuss implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation.
| Document type: | Working paper |
|---|---|
| Series Name: | Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics |
| Volume: | 0727 |
| Place of Publication: | Heidelberg |
| Edition: | Zweite Auflage |
| Date Deposited: | 05 May 2023 12:29 |
| Date: | April 2023 |
| Number of Pages: | 47 |
| Faculties / Institutes: | The Faculty of Economics and Social Studies > Alfred-Weber-Institut for Economics |
| DDC-classification: | 330 Economics |
| Controlled Keywords: | Inflation, Experiment |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | density forecast, survey |
| Series: | Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics |
Available Versions of this Item
-
Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts. (deposited 13 Jan 2023 13:46)
- Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts. (deposited 05 May 2023 12:29) [Currently Displayed]
