%0 Generic
%A Dovern, Jonas
%A Huber, Florian
%C Heidelberg
%D 2015
%F heidok:18381
%K GVAR, recession forecast, QPS, probability forecast
%R 10.11588/heidok.00018381
%T Global Prediction of Recessions 
%U https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/18381/
%V dp585
%X We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.