eprintid: 18381
rev_number: 16
eprint_status: archive
userid: 2744
dir: disk0/00/01/83/81
datestamp: 2015-03-17 10:05:21
lastmod: 2015-04-23 20:49:28
status_changed: 2015-03-17 10:05:21
type: workingPaper
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Dovern, Jonas
creators_name: Huber, Florian
title: Global Prediction of Recessions 
subjects: ddc-330
divisions: i-181000
keywords: GVAR, recession forecast, QPS, probability forecast
abstract: We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.
date: 2015-03
id_scheme: DOI
id_number: 10.11588/heidok.00018381
schriftenreihe_cluster_id: sr-3
schriftenreihe_order: 0585
ppn_swb: 1655688995
own_urn: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-183811
language: eng
bibsort: DOVERNJONAGLOBALPRED201503
full_text_status: public
series: Discussion Paper Series, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
volume: dp585
place_of_pub: Heidelberg
pages: 8
citation:   Dovern, Jonas ; Huber, Florian  (2015) Global Prediction of Recessions.  [Working paper]     
document_url: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/18381/1/dp585.pdf