eprintid: 20434
rev_number: 14
eprint_status: archive
userid: 2744
dir: disk0/00/02/04/34
datestamp: 2016-03-15 13:30:59
lastmod: 2016-06-17 10:15:53
status_changed: 2016-03-15 13:30:59
type: workingPaper
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Glas, Alexander
creators_name: Hartmann, Matthias
title: Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
subjects: ddc-330
divisions: i-181000
keywords: Inflation uncertainty, Disagreement, Density forecast, Central banking,Survey of Professional Forecasters.
abstract: We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.
date: 2016-03
id_scheme: DOI
id_number: 10.11588/heidok.00020434
schriftenreihe_cluster_id: sr-3
schriftenreihe_order: 0612
ppn_swb: 857216414
own_urn: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-204344
language: eng
bibsort: GLASALEXANINFLATIONU201603
full_text_status: public
series: Discussion Paper Series, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
volume: 0612
place_of_pub: Heidelberg
pages: 40
citation:   Glas, Alexander ; Hartmann, Matthias  (2016) Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.  [Working paper]     
document_url: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/20434/1/glas_hartmann_2016_dp612.pdf