eprintid: 23706
rev_number: 15
eprint_status: archive
userid: 3114
dir: disk0/00/02/37/06
datestamp: 2017-11-10 13:35:14
lastmod: 2017-11-13 09:23:36
status_changed: 2017-11-10 13:35:14
type: workingPaper
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Dovern, Jonas
corp_creators: Christoph Zuber
title: Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output
subjects: ddc-330
divisions: i-181000
cterms_swd: potential output
cterms_swd: trend
cterms_swd: output gap
cterms_swd: hysteresis
cterms_swd: OECD
abstract: This paper analyzes how the OECD revises potential output (PO) estimates after recessions. We show that downward revisions are substantial and mostly driven by supply shocks while PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. In addition, revisions are partly caused by avoidable mismeasurement of PO before recessions. In particular, we show that the length of the preceding boom and pre-recession values of the current account balance and credit volumes are predictors of post-recession PO revisions. Our results call for improved methods for estimating PO and provide evidence against the existence of substantial hysteresis effects of demand shocks.
date: 2017-11-08
publisher: University of Heidelberg
id_scheme: DOI
id_number: 10.11588/heidok.00023706
schriftenreihe_cluster_id: sr-3
schriftenreihe_order: 0639
ppn_swb: 100501261X
own_urn: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-237060
language: eng
bibsort: DOVERNJONARECESSIONS20171108
full_text_status: public
series: Discussion Paper Series
volume: 0639
place_of_pub: Heidelberg
citation:   Dovern, Jonas  (2017) Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output.  [Working paper]     
document_url: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/23706/1/__ad.uni-heidelberg.de_wiso_u.arnold_Desktop_Dovern_Zuber_2017_dp639.pdf