eprintid: 26409
rev_number: 18
eprint_status: archive
userid: 3114
dir: disk0/00/02/64/09
datestamp: 2019-05-09 13:00:36
lastmod: 2019-05-21 17:29:12
status_changed: 2019-05-09 13:00:36
type: workingPaper
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Vanberg, Christoph
title: A short note on the rationality of the false consensus effect
subjects: ddc-330
divisions: i-181000
keywords: beliefs, behavioral economics, experimental economics
abstract: In experiments which measure subjects’ beliefs, both beliefs about others’ behavior and beliefs about others’ beliefs, are often correlated with a subject’s own choices. Such phenomena have been interpreted as evidence of a causal relationship between beliefs and behavior. An alternative explanation attributes them to what psychologists refer to as a ‘false consensus effect’. It
is my impression that the latter explanation is often prematurely dismissed because it is thought to be based on an implausible psychological bias. The goal of this note is to show that the false consensus effect does not rely on such a bias. I demonstrate that rational belief formation implies a correlation of behavior and beliefs of all orders whenever behaviorally relevant traits
are drawn from an unknown common distribution. Thus, if we assume that subjects rationally update beliefs, correlations of beliefs and behavior cannot support a causal relationship.
date: 2019-05
id_scheme: DOI
id_number: 10.11588/heidok.00026409
schriftenreihe_cluster_id: sr-3
schriftenreihe_order: 0662
ppn_swb: 1666046892
own_urn: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-264097
language: eng
bibsort: VANBERGCHRASHORTNOTE201905
full_text_status: public
series: Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
volume: 0662
place_of_pub: Heidelberg
pages: 6
citation:   Vanberg, Christoph  (2019) A short note on the rationality of the false consensus effect.  [Working paper]     
document_url: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/26409/1/Vanberg_2019_dp662.pdf