%0 Generic
%A Krüger, Fabian
%A Pavlova, Lora
%C Heidelberg
%D 2019
%F heidok:26507
%K uncertainty, inflation, economic expectations, probabilistic forecasting
%R 10.11588/heidok.00026507
%T Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations
%U https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/26507/
%V 0664
%X Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. From a theoretical viewpoint, the measure can be motivated as the entropy function of a strictly proper scoring rule. We demonstrate the measure's good performance in a simulation study based on empirical data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.