eprintid: 26507
rev_number: 20
eprint_status: archive
userid: 3114
dir: disk0/00/02/65/07
datestamp: 2019-06-03 13:36:59
lastmod: 2019-10-18 10:35:14
status_changed: 2019-06-03 13:36:59
type: workingPaper
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Krüger, Fabian
creators_name: Pavlova, Lora
title: Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations
subjects: ddc-330
divisions: i-181000
keywords: uncertainty, inflation, economic expectations, probabilistic forecasting
abstract: Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. From a theoretical viewpoint, the measure can be motivated as the entropy function of a strictly proper scoring rule. We demonstrate the measure's good performance in a simulation study based on empirical data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.
date: 2019-05
id_scheme: DOI
id_number: 10.11588/heidok.00026507
schriftenreihe_cluster_id: sr-3
schriftenreihe_order: 0664
ppn_swb: 1668052768
own_urn: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-265072
language: eng
bibsort: KRUGERFABIQUANTIFYIN201905
full_text_status: public
series: Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
volume: 0664
place_of_pub: Heidelberg
pages: 30
citation:   Krüger, Fabian ; Pavlova, Lora  (2019) Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations.  [Working paper]     
document_url: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/26507/3/Krueger_Pavlova_2019_dp664.pdf