<> "The repository administrator has not yet configured an RDF license."^^ . <> . . "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past\r\nconsensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations"^^ . "We propose a simple model of expectation formation with three distinct deviations from fully rational expectations. In particular, forecasters’ expectations are sticky, extrapolate the most recent news about the current period, and depend on the lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of\r\nProfessional Forecaster as well as in the Livingston Survey, and that their magnitudes depend on the forecasting horizon. Moreover, in an over-identified econometric specification, we find that the restriction on coefficients implied by our model is always close to being satisfied and in most cases not rejected. We also stress the point that using the past consensus forecast\r\nto form expectations is a rather smart thing to do if cognitive limitations and biases cause any attempt to build an own rational forecast to fail."^^ . "2020-07" . . . "0686" . . . . . . . . "Joep"^^ . "Lustenhouwer"^^ . "Joep Lustenhouwer"^^ . . "Tim"^^ . "Hagenhoff"^^ . "Tim Hagenhoff"^^ . . . . . . "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past\r\nconsensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations (PDF)"^^ . . . "Hagenhoff_Lustenhouwer_2020_dp686.pdf"^^ . . . "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past\r\nconsensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "indexcodes.txt"^^ . . . "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past\r\nconsensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "lightbox.jpg"^^ . . . "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past\r\nconsensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "preview.jpg"^^ . . . "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past\r\nconsensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "medium.jpg"^^ . . . "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past\r\nconsensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "small.jpg"^^ . . "HTML Summary of #28722 \n\nThe role of stickiness, extrapolation and past \nconsensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations\n\n" . "text/html" . . . "330 Wirtschaft"@de . "330 Economics"@en . .