title: Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts
creator: Becker, Christoph
creator: Duersch, Peter
creator: Eife, Thomas
subject: ddc-330
subject: 330 Economics
description: In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modified response scales induces different answers: Shifting, compressing or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed and expanded forecasts. Mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement can change by several percentage points. We discuss implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation.
date: 2023-01
type: Working paper
type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
type: NonPeerReviewed
format: application/pdf
identifier: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/32677/1/Becker_Duersch_Eife_2023_dp723.pdf
identifier: DOI:10.11588/heidok.00032677
identifier: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-326775
identifier:   Becker, Christoph ; Duersch, Peter ; Eife, Thomas  (2023) Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts.  [Working paper]     
relation: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/32677/
rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights: http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/help/license_urhg.html
language: eng