TY  - GEN
AV  - public
TI  - Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts
N2  - In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modified response scales induces different answers: Shifting, compressing or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed and expanded forecasts. Mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement can change by several percentage points. We discuss implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation.
KW  - density forecast
KW  -  survey
T3  - Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
A1  - Becker, Christoph
A1  - Duersch, Peter
A1  - Eife, Thomas
EP  - 47
CY  - Heidelberg
UR  - https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/33232/
Y1  - 2023/04//
ID  - heidok33232
ER  -