eprintid: 33232
rev_number: 14
eprint_status: archive
userid: 3730
dir: disk0/00/03/32/32
datestamp: 2023-05-05 12:29:26
lastmod: 2024-02-09 14:38:05
status_changed: 2023-05-05 12:29:26
type: workingPaper
succeeds: 32677
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Becker, Christoph
creators_name: Duersch, Peter
creators_name: Eife, Thomas
title: Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts
subjects: ddc-330
divisions: i-181000
keywords: density forecast, survey
cterms_swd: Inflation
cterms_swd: Experiment
abstract: In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modified response scales induces different answers: Shifting, compressing or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed and expanded forecasts. Mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement can change by several percentage points. We discuss implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation.
date: 2023-04
id_scheme: DOI
id_number: 10.11588/heidok.00033232
schriftenreihe_cluster_id: sr-3
schriftenreihe_order: 0727
ppn_swb: 1844742296
own_urn: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-332324
language: eng
bibsort: BECKERCHRIMEASURINGI20230113
full_text_status: public
series: Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
volume: 0727
place_of_pub: Heidelberg
pages: 47
edition: Zweite Auflage
citation:   Becker, Christoph ; Duersch, Peter ; Eife, Thomas  (2023) Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts.  [Working paper]     
document_url: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/33232/1/Becker_et_al_2023_dp727.pdf