eprintid: 34429
rev_number: 17
eprint_status: archive
userid: 3114
dir: disk0/00/03/44/29
datestamp: 2024-02-14 13:02:07
lastmod: 2024-02-15 09:15:14
status_changed: 2024-02-14 13:02:07
type: workingPaper
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Goldfayn-Frank, Olga
creators_name: Kieren, Pascal
creators_name: Trautmann, Stefan
title: A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations
subjects: ddc-330
divisions: i-181000
keywords: Inflation expectations, measurement, surveys
abstract: In macroeconomic surveys, inflation expectations are commonly elicited via density forecasts in which respondents assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges in inflation. This question format is increasingly subject to criticism. In this study, we propose a new method to elicit inflation expectations which is based on prior decision theoretic research. We demonstrate that it leads to well-defined expectations with central tendencies close to the corresponding point forecasts and to lower forecast uncertainty than density forecasts. In contrast to currently employed methods, the approach is robust to differences in the state of the economy and thus allows comparisons across time and across countries. Additionally, the method is not very time consuming and portable in the sense that it can be applied to different macroeconomic measures.
date: 2024
publisher: Universität
id_scheme: DOI
id_number: 10.11588/heidok.00034429
schriftenreihe_cluster_id: sr-3
schriftenreihe_order: 0742
ppn_swb: 188083328X
own_urn: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-344290
language: eng
bibsort: GOLDFAYNFRACHOICEBAS20240129
full_text_status: public
series: AWI Discussion Paper Series
volume: 0742
place_of_pub: Heidelberg
pages: 42
citation:   Goldfayn-Frank, Olga ; Kieren, Pascal ; Trautmann, Stefan  (2024) A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations.  [Working paper]     
document_url: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/34429/7/choice-based_approach_dp742_2024.pdf