eprintid: 35499
rev_number: 18
eprint_status: archive
userid: 3114
dir: disk0/00/03/54/99
datestamp: 2024-10-22 14:09:55
lastmod: 2024-10-31 10:20:53
status_changed: 2024-10-22 14:09:55
type: workingPaper
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Conrad, Christian
creators_name: Lahiri, Kajal
title: Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters
subjects: ddc-330
divisions: i-181000
keywords: disagreement, expectations, forecasts, rationality, survey data
abstract: Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations, before providing an overview of the empirical evidence supporting the different theories and pointing to possible directions for future research. A literature review is complemented by empirical evidence based on the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Financial Market Survey, covering the behavior of expectations heterogeneity during the recent surge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. A central finding is that differences in perceptions about the workings of the economy and heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time.
date: 2024
publisher: Alfred-Weber-Institut
id_scheme: DOI
id_number: 10.11588/heidok.00035499
schriftenreihe_cluster_id: sr-3
schriftenreihe_order: 0754
ppn_swb: 1907298495
own_urn: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-354990
language: eng
bibsort: CONRADCHRIHETEROGENE20240918
full_text_status: public
series: AWI Discussion Paper Series
volume: 0754
place_of_pub: Heidelberg
pages: 36
citation:   Conrad, Christian ; Lahiri, Kajal  (2024) Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters.  [Working paper]     
document_url: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/35499/7/Conrad_Lahiri_dp754_2024.pdf