Preview |
PDF, English
- main document
Download (1MB) | Terms of use |
Abstract
We present the results of an experiment where a random subset of the participants in the Bundesbank's household panel receive personalized response scales, centered at each participant's point forecast. Personalized response scales offer two advantages over the standard scale which is centered at zero inflation: First, they mitigate the impact of the central tendency bias which leads respondents to assign greater probability mass to the center of the scale at zero. Second, they eliminate the need to adjust the scale when actual inflation falls outside the range for which the response scale was designed. Our results show that the personalized survey responses are of higher quality in three dimensions: (i) higher internal consistency, (ii) more uni-modal responses, and (iii) a significant reduction in the use of the (minimally informative) unbounded intervals of the response scale.
Document type: | Working paper |
---|---|
Series Name: | AWI Discussion Paper Series |
Volume: | 0743 |
Publisher: | Universität |
Place of Publication: | Heidelberg |
Date Deposited: | 14 Feb 2024 13:55 |
Date: | 2024 |
Number of Pages: | 9 |
Faculties / Institutes: | The Faculty of Economics and Social Studies > Alfred-Weber-Institut for Economics |
DDC-classification: | 330 Economics |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | Inflation, density forecast, probabilistic forecast, experiment, survey design, personalized response scales |
Series: | Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics |