Directly to content
  1. Publishing |
  2. Search |
  3. Browse |
  4. Recent items rss |
  5. Open Access |
  6. Jur. Issues |
  7. DeutschClear Cookie - decide language by browser settings

Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations

Krüger, Fabian ; Pavlova, Lora

[img] PDF, English - main document
Download (672kB) | Terms of use

Citation of documents: Please do not cite the URL that is displayed in your browser location input, instead use the DOI, URN or the persistent URL below, as we can guarantee their long-time accessibility.

Abstract

Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. From a theoretical viewpoint, the measure can be motivated as the entropy function of a strictly proper scoring rule. We demonstrate the measure's good performance in a simulation study based on empirical data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Item Type: Working paper
Series Name: Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
Volume: 0664
Place of Publication: Heidelberg
Date Deposited: 03 Jun 2019 13:36
Date: May 2019
Number of Pages: 30
Faculties / Institutes: The Faculty of Economics and Social Studies > Alfred-Weber-Institut for Economics
Subjects: 330 Economics
Uncontrolled Keywords: uncertainty, inflation, economic expectations, probabilistic forecasting
Schriftenreihe ID: Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
About | FAQ | Contact | Imprint |
OA-LogoDINI certificate 2013Logo der Open-Archives-Initiative