PDF, English
- main document
Download (434kB) | Terms of use |
Abstract
In experiments which measure subjects’ beliefs, both beliefs about others’ behavior and beliefs about others’ beliefs, are often correlated with a subject’s own choices. Such phenomena have been interpreted as evidence of a causal relationship between beliefs and behavior. An alternative explanation attributes them to what psychologists refer to as a ‘false consensus effect’. It is my impression that the latter explanation is often prematurely dismissed because it is thought to be based on an implausible psychological bias. The goal of this note is to show that the false consensus effect does not rely on such a bias. I demonstrate that rational belief formation implies a correlation of behavior and beliefs of all orders whenever behaviorally relevant traits are drawn from an unknown common distribution. Thus, if we assume that subjects rationally update beliefs, correlations of beliefs and behavior cannot support a causal relationship.
Document type: | Working paper |
---|---|
Series Name: | Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics |
Volume: | 0662 |
Place of Publication: | Heidelberg |
Date Deposited: | 09 May 2019 13:00 |
Date: | May 2019 |
Number of Pages: | 6 |
Faculties / Institutes: | The Faculty of Economics and Social Studies > Alfred-Weber-Institut for Economics |
DDC-classification: | 330 Economics |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | beliefs, behavioral economics, experimental economics |
Series: | Discussion Paper Series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics |